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History will have to record that the greatest tragedy of this period of social transition was not the strident clamor of the bad people, but the appalling silence of the good people. Martin Luther King, Jr. The crisis in Syria is gradually growing into a regional conflict between the superpowers. This conflict is pitting Iran, Hezbollah (with independent Lebanon being dragged in against its will) and Syria against the entire Arab world and particularly the gulf countries. At the superpower level, it is pitting Iran and Russia against the West, which continues to wrangle with how to assist the rebels and consider whether or not President Assad has crossed the red line and used chemical weapons against the rebels. Since the uprising in Syria began over two years ago, as part of what came to be known as the Arab Spring and the upheaval in the Middle East, the long-standing strategic alliance between Iran and Hezbollah, which is playing an active role in the battles in Syria, has been put to the test, as the fighting is exacting both a political toll and human price in casualties in order to protect Assad’s regime. So far, Iran has not let Bashar down and throughout the crisis has proven its commitment to this alliance. It provides Assad with ongoing military aid, sends in advisors from the IRGC Quds Forces and, with the help of Moscow, grants regional and international political support in the face of the (meek) attempts by the West and Turkey to increase their involvement in the crisis and bring about Bashar al-Assad’s downfall. Given the extent of the turmoil and upheaval in Bashar al-Assad’s regime, his ally Iran, has stood squarely by his side. It has done so despite, or perhaps because of, the regional circumstances that are reshaping the landscape of the Middle East. It would seem that Iran should have paid a “price” for going against the “Arab Spring” in terms of its stalwart support of Assad. However, Iran believes that its unequivocal support, in contrast with the quick retreat the President of the United States, Barack Obama, made in his support of Egyptian President Mubarak will demonstrate its strength, as the power that has stood by its allies since the Revolution, despite the changing circumstances. Syria continues to be a critical component in the old regional order in the Middle East, which Iran has nurtured by streaming tremendous funds, massive political and military support. Damascus is the political pillar of support in the “resistance camp” or as Iran calls it, the “golden link in the chain of resistance” against Israel. This is the “camp” Iran has established to counter the continued “imperialist” presence in the region. It is against this reality that the following statement by Hojjatoleslam Mehdi Taeb, head of the Ammar Strategic Base (pro-Khamenei think tank responsible for handling Iran’s soft war) and a former Basij commander, takes on added poignancy: “Syria is (Iran’s) 35th and a strategic province. If the enemy attacks us and intends to occupy either Syria or Khuzestan (Arab minority province in southwestern Iran), the priority is that we keep Syria… If we keep Syria, we can get Khuzestan back too, but if we lose Syria, we cannot keep Tehran… Syria had an army, but did not have the ability to manage a (urban warfare) war inside Syria’s cities… Iran’s front line is located in Syria. It is for this reason the Iranian government suggested that “in order to manage an urban war you must form (your own) Basij …The Syrian Basij was formed with 60,000 Hezbollah members who took over urban warfare from the army.”[1] The Arab Spring, or in Iranian terminology – the Islamic Awakening, has more or less positioned Iran at the forefront of the resistance camp. Hezbollah has, in fact, completed its takeover of the Lebanese arena, Hamas has established is control of Gaza and the political process (regarding the Syrian and Palestinian channels) has ground to a halt. Iran, for its part, continued to advance its nuclear programs concurrently with the negotiations with the West and to project regional strength, especially as discourse in the US about completing withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan intensified and while Iran continues to oppose the US and the West. Even the weak criticism at home regarding Iran’s continued support of Assad has absolutely no impact on Tehran’s determination. The longer the Syrian crisis continues, the more it reveals the expansion of the Arab-Arab rift (between Saudi Arabia and the gulf countries against Syria), intensification of the Arab-Iranian rift and the Sunni-Shiite rift, not to mention the historical Persian-Turkish (Ottoman) rift. At the same time, it also trains the spotlight on the ever weaker position of the US in the Middle East, Iran’s centrality and the rise of Islamic regimes. As a result, one of the key challenges faced by Iran in this space is with Turkey. Both of the countries have powerful imperialist pasts and seek to recapture their former glory, though with a modern twist. They are expected to continue to butt heads on the Syrian crisis, which is actually a microcosm of the ongoing regional and international process to reshape the region after the upheavals of the Arab Spring. Iran, through Hezbollah and other means, is increasing its footprint in Syria through boots on the ground, and Russia continues to send Assad sophisticated weaponry to help in air and marine defense (S-300 surface-to-air missiles and Yakhont supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles) that could fall into the hands of terror groups such as Hezbollah. It appears that Syria is yet another unresolved front left over from the Cold War, and the battle for its future is perceived by Russia and Iran on the one hand and the West, on the other, as one that can have a decisive effect on the shape the Middle East following the Arab Spring will take. In the end, it would seem that while the West hesitates on how to address the Syrian crisis, the continued bloodshed (death toll of 90,000, if not higher) and the increasing evidence of the use of chemical weapons, Iran and Russian continue to maintain their united stance designed to keep Bashar al-Assad in control and keep Syria as a stronghold from which they can continue to wage their struggle against the West and Israel. Assad’s survival to date and, moreover, his future survival will have many negative implications for the shape of the Middle East. Iran’s become even more confident and will increase its operations in the Syria-Lebanon space to influence the Middle East which is taking a new shape. This may be accompanied by completion of Iran’s nuclear program, which will serve as a defensive shield for its foreign policy and more aggressive export of the revolution, in which Syria-Lebanon will play a major role. [1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2013/02/130214_nm_tayeb_syria_basij.shtml
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The courageous decision of former President (89-97) and current Chairman of the Expediency Council, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (78), to enter the presidential race in Iran after very public and well-covered deliberations, once again gives rise to hope for a real change both to Iranians and to the West. In Iran, Rafsanjani who called for the release of those arrested during the protests following the “rigged” presidential elections in June 2009 and lost his position as Friday prayer leader is viewed as the person who can bring about the desired change and get the Revolution back on track. In the West, Rafsanjani (“…the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything”) is seen as a moderate and pragmatic leader, with a well-conceived and considered economic plan, and a person with whom the West can reach agreements. Rafsanjani’s decision to enter the race is dramatic in the Iranian context. It is reasonable to assume that other candidates who registered and are seen as part of the reformist camp will withdraw their candidacies and pave the way for Rafsanjani (if he is approved by the Guardian Council, the body charged with vetting the candidates and assessing their compliance with the strict conditions of the Islamic Republic and particularly their belief in the guiding principle of Velayat-e faqih - Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist). There are many in the IRGC elite and among those close to the Supreme Leader who oppose the approval of Rafsanjani. What remains unclear is the extent to which Rafsanjani’s move was approved by the Supreme Leader. Even prior to the announcement that he had joined the race and immediately thereafter, several high-ranking officials in the IRGC said that Rafsanjani had participated in the fitna and sedition (support of the Green Movement activists) following the June 2009 presidential elections and is therefore unfit to be a presidential candidate. Keyhan, affiliated with the Supreme Leader, has similarly criticized Rafsanjani and other senior reformist leaders in recent weeks. Disqualification of Rafsanjani by the Guardian Council might foment a wave of protests throughout Iran, as he has strong support among the middle class and in the cities as well as among Bazaar merchants (despite the suspicions that he and his family are tainted by corruption). His status in recent years, however, has waned due to the growing strength of the IRGC and its having taken over control of many aspects of the Iranian economy at the expense of the private sector. Most of the candidates will be disqualified by the Guardian Council, which has 5 days (from the day registration closes) and an additional five days, if they require more time. Hundreds of the over 600 candidates, including 30 women, will be disqualified. Those who remain, however, and particularly Rafsanjani and to a lesser extent Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei (Ahmadinejad’s close ally) may prove to pose a real challenge to the current Iranian regime, even during the Guardian Council’s vetting process, given the accusations that have been leveled against them in recent months, namely that they were part of the fitna and sedition. Rafsanjani currently has an advantage he did not have in his previous attempt to run for president. He now has the support of the reformists (including the support of Mohammad Khatami), part of the traditional religious establishment in Qom that was pushed aside during Ahmadinejad’s terms of office (Ahmadinejad, together with Mashaei, tried to give revolutionary Iran a more nationalist veneer and was vociferously attacked for doing so), the middle class and the business/bazaar sector. The principlists and the hardline principlists have, thus far, not been able to rally around a single candidate. It seems that at the end of the day, the latter will support the candidacy of Saeed Jalili, nuclear negotiator and the Supreme Leader’s representative to the SNSC, or Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor on International Affairs to the Supreme Leader and a former foreign minister (1981-1997), including in Rafsanjani’s previous government. Rafsanjani’s candidacy has complicated matters for the principlists and is forcing them run a “strong” and prominent candidate against him. In the time left before the elections and at the most important juncture the Iranian Revolution has faced to date (following the Iran-Iraq War), the Iranian people are faced with yet another decision (assuming that this time there will be no fake or invalid votes in the election). Ahmadinejad has placed Iran on a collision course with the West, from which there appears to be no reprieve. The question the Iranian electorate will be asking itself and which will be at the center of the campaigns of all candidates approved by the Guardian Council is who is capable of preventing the head-on collision with the West and getting the Revolution back on track. Rafsanjani is definitely a possibility, but so is Jalili.
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The issue of whether or not Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, former President (two terms) and Head of the Expediency Council will throw his hat into the ring of presidential candidates took center stage in Iran’s domestic arena. Rafsanjani, for his part, emphasized at the end of a week of speculation that he would run for president if and only if the Supreme Leader approved it and that “If the circumstances (his decision to run for president) will lead to differences of opinion and disputes between me and the leadership, everyone will lose (and this needs to be avoided), and the results would be undesirable.” He added that he is checking the political situation in Iran before he makes his final decision. Candidates from the reformist camp, including Mohammad Reza Aref, announced that if at the end of the day Rafsanjani or Mohammad Khatami decide to run in the elections, they would withdraw from the race. In a survey conducted on the popular website, Asr-e Iran, 51% expressed support for Rafsanjani as a candidate. The issue of Rafsanjani entering the race has generated a great deal of noise on the Iranian domestic scene. His detractors argued that he was a partner in the protests that followed the June 2009 presidential elections and is thus actually part of the sedition, making him unfit to run again. Others, including Ali Motahhari, one of Ahmadinejad’s loudest critics, lashed out against such talk and said that there is no reason why Rafsanjani shouldn’t submit his candidacy if that is what he wants. Ali Akbar Velyati, the Supreme Leader’s Advisor on International Affairs and a potential candidate, noted in this regard that any candidate who is approved by the Guardian Council is fit to run in the elections. Rafsanjani, president of Iran from 1989-1997, continues to serve as head of the Expediency Discernment Council of the System. In March 2011, he withdrew his candidacy for the position of Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a position he had held, due to concern that he would be defeated. Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani was elected instead, and while Rafsanjani lost some of his power, he remained a key figure in Iran. Rafsanjani is at times perceived in the West as the “good principlist” – the person who can effect real change. This is based on his efforts since the end of the Iran-Iraq War throughout all of his political activity to contain and limit the growing influence of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), as he recognized their growing power. Since the June 2009 elections, Rafsanjani has given his hesitant support to the reformist camp, and in a Friday sermon (on July 17, 2009) even called for the release of prisoners. This was also his last Friday sermon. The fact that he stopped giving Friday sermons in Tehran weakened Rafsanjani’s influence significantly, although he continued from time to time to publish items on his website. Since that time, the rift between him and the regime has deepened. Rafsanjani’s family, including his daughter Faezeh, are under surveillance. Faezeh, who is a member of the Green Movement, has even been arrested several times and served time in prison. His son is slated to go on trial. Rafsanjani is perceived as being an enemy of the IRGC and as being the person who suggested that Khamenei to stop the war against Iraq. Article 150 of the Iranian Constitution states, “The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, organized in the early days of the triumph of the Revolution, is to be maintained so that it may continue in its role of guarding the Revolution and its achievements.” The “Guards” took a broad, even very broad, interpretation of this article. The changes now taking place in the Middle East provide the IRGC with fertile ground for its extensive operations among Islamic elements in Arab countries that are in the midst of historic change. Now the IRGC can more easily activate its sleeper cells in the Arab countries and increase aid to Islamic (particularly Shiite) insurgents. This is being done while the brakes ¾ such as Rafsanjani ¾ on this policy are wearing ever thinner. The various operations the IRGC has undertaken since the Revolution have changed it and its position in Iranian society beyond recognition. From disjointed groups in the various Iranian cities on the eve of the Revolution, the organization has amassed great economic and military strength and, in fact, become the most influential and powerful player in Iran from the military, economic and political perspectives. In fact, it is the IRGC that is spearheading the terror policy and export of the Revolution through the Quds Force that works through a “proxy” (Hamas and Hezbollah) against Israel in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Egypt and North Africa to promote Iran’s agenda. Today the IRGC is gradually completing its takeover of Iran, while other groups considered more moderate that have operated until this time on the domestic scene, including Rafsanjani and other senior officials from the first generation of the Revolution ¾ including among the religious establishment ¾ are being pushed out of their positions of power and being replaced by the IRGC. Should Rafsanjani decide to join the presidential race and provided that the elections are fair (unlike the June 2009 elections), this will mark his final attempt to change the current collision course Iran is on with the West, and it may already be too late.
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The stalled negotiations on Iran’s nuclear dossier between Iran and the West, the Arab Spring in the Middle East and the ongoing crisis in Syria are all gradually widening the chasm and intensifying the existing disputes between Iran and the Gulf states. As a result, tensions between the “Sunni camp” led by Saudi Arabia and the “Shiite camp” led by Iran are brewing. This tension is seen in the various hot spots in the Middle East and, at times, even extends beyond it (revelation of the Iranian Intelligence Minister’s attempt to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the United States.) Hezbollah, which is subservient to Tehran, is fighting in Syria alongside Bashar al-Assad’s forces in an attempt to save his regime from the “Free Syrian Army” and assorted militias that have sprung up over the past two years. In contrast Saudi and Qatari aid (money, weaponry and extensive propaganda assistance) flows freely to the forces attempting to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Each side maintains that the other is responsible for the continuation of the crisis. Iran tried – more as a public diplomacy measure – to establish a contact group made up of Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia and as part of this group to present the 9-step plan for resolution of the Syrian crisis. From time to time, Iran emphasizes that the solution to the crisis is diplomacy. In addition to the media assaults on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, which are working against the Assad regime, Iran has recently also started attacking Jordan, which according to Tehran is allowing “al-Qaeda” operatives to travel through the Kingdom to help the Syrian rebels. The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Hassan Firouzabadi, claimed that Jordan was allowing Israeli aircraft to travel through its airspace, “betraying the Arab world and jeopardizing the interests of the Islamic ummah.” This statement indicates that the traditional conflict between Iran and the Gulf states has extended into the Hashemite Kingdom and, in fact, opens up a front with the moderate Arab countries, which have an interest in strengthening relations with the United States. Stronger military cooperation between Iran and the Gulf States, particularly in terms of deployment of advanced (Iranian) missile-protection systems and the continued US and Western presence in the Persian Gulf, adds fuel to the fire in the conflict between Iran and the Gulf states. Additionally, the continued Shiite unrest in Bahrain (home to the Fifth Fleet of the United States Navy), which Iran has been stoking in terms of intelligence and subversive action as well as on the propaganda front (Iranian broadcast channels in Arabic and English), adds yet another layer of tension between Iran and the regional players. Iran has also in the past criticized Saudi military involvement in Bahrain to protect the monarchy. In terms of propaganda, Iran has made it clear that the Arab Spring will not skip Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States. A recent editorial in conservative newspaper, Jomhouri Eslami, stated that “all the Arab Spring indicators of a revolution like in other Arab countries exist in Saudi Arabia,” and that recent arrests of Shiite clergymen will not save the Kingdom. The Majlis (Iranian parliament) recently discussed this issue, and from time to time the Iranian government is criticized for not doing enough to protect the Shiites in the Gulf states. In reality, at the military/intelligence level, Iran is using the IRGC to assist Shiite operatives throughout the Persian Gulf and Yemen. Saudi Arabia recently uncovered a spy ring that was gathering intelligence in Saudi Arabia at the direction of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS) and tasked with gathering information about economic and military infrastructures.[1] Iran has denied the allegations. In the end, Iran is continuing to engage in subversive activity in various arenas in the Middle East that constitute the regions of conflict with the Gulf states and the West. This activity is part of the policy to export the Revolution, which given the Arab Spring and the changes in this region, Iran believes can be intensified. Its continued efforts to promote its nuclear program are designed to support this activity and in the future to grant it a type of defensive shield and protection that will enable it to be promoted through more daring steps and acts. [1] http://alhayat.com/Details/497106
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Over the past two weeks, Iran has marked National Nuclear Day (April 9) and Armed Forces Day (April 18). These memorial days were used to emphasize Iran's nuclear and military technological achievements. On these days, the religious-political leadership as well as the top military ranks stressed Iran's fortitude in the face of the tightening sanctions. In reality, while these sanctions are exacting a heavy price from Iran, they are not enough to force Iran to give up on continuing its nuclear program and technological independence. National Nuclear Day began this year very shortly after another round of failed nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 (five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany). Iran reiterated its legitimate right to enrich uranium, as it is a party to the NPT. This issue was also the focal point of the nuclear talks that Iran held with the 5+1 in Kazakhstan (twice, in February and in April) and in Turkey (March), as was its demand to lift or significantly reduce the sanctions imposed against it. Demands were made for Iran to shut down one of its enrichment facilities (Fordo), a demand that the West apparently dropped during the negotiations, and to move uranium enrichment to 20% outside Iran (which Iran managed to produce for the research reactor in Tehran) so that it could be subject to monitoring and not be used for re-enrichment to reach the level that is required for nuclear weapons. If after the first round of talks in Kazakhstan Iran seemed optimistic (apparently intentional and planned), following the second round of talks, Iran once again placed the blame for the failure of the talks on the West, and particularly the United States, while emphasizing that Washington was not at all interested in resolving the nuclear issue and planned on using it to contain Iran's regional influence. This approach earned propaganda support through the establishment’s various media outlets. The Chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee warned that the Majlis might, in light of the West's behavior that is stripping Iran of its "natural rights" to nuclear technology, discuss the option of withdrawing from the NPT, a threat repeated from time to time by Iranian spokesmen. Following the failure of the talks, various Iranian spokesmen, including Fereydoon Abbasi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said that Iran has essentially crossed the technological threshold required to create nuclear weapons, but the Iranian decision to do so has not yet been made. Abbasi emphasized installation of new generation of centrifuges, continued uranium enrichment to 3.5% and 20% required to operate reactors in Iran and continued R&D of even more advanced generations of centrifuges. These might allow Iran to enrich uranium to the level required for a nuclear weapon within a short period of time. In addition, Abbasi stressed the continued preparations for the operation of IR-40 megawatt heavy water reactor that will facilitate Iranian progress down a path that would allow it to advance its military nuclear plans with regard to plutonium. In conclusion, the last round of talks (April 6-7) and Iran's inciting behavior during and after the talks, in which its demonstrated that the current talks to resolve the 'nuclear dossier' between Iran and the West has run its course and that essentially, and that all that is left is essentially a dialogue of the deaf. Iran is continuing to exploit the West's desire for a diplomatic solution to consistently advance its nuclear programs, which will ultimately result in the production of a bomb, and to create it if and when it chooses based on its own political-strategic considerations. The West must decide whether it wants to persist on this path or whether it should seek other ways to resolve relations with Iran, which over the past several decades has been striving to establish itself as an alternative to American hegemony in the Middle East.
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At the beginning of the week, Ahmadinejad set out to visit several West African countries (Benin, Niger and Ghana). For Ahmadinejad, the visit is a welcome respite from the battle that is heating up in the domestic arena ahead of the upcoming presidential elections scheduled to take place in June. Criticism against the President and his government is growing, as are the unflattering summaries of the newly ended Persian year, with the main criticism focusing on poor economic performance with high unemployment and surging inflation. Ahmadinejad, who is legally prohibited from running for another term, is continuing his efforts to position his candidate to continue his path. His preferred candidate is Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, a relative and confidante, but the Guardian Council will probably disqualify him. The President is therefore trying to promote other candidates (whose names have not yet been disclosed). The sharp criticism leveled against Ahmadinejad is not interfering with his efforts to promote his candidates, and he has even stated his support of them during large-scale events such as the conference at Azadi (“freedom”) Stadium in which he reportedly expressed support for Mashaei. Ahmadinejad appeared in public with Mashaei and even recently symbolically transferred the Iranian flag to him. The move was considered highly controversial among political and military circles, which perceived it as interfering in the elections prior to the start of official election campaigns as prescribed by law. Ahmadinejad was recently attacked for using the slogan "Long Live Spring," which is also being used by Mashaei. Anyone leaving Iran to travel overseas can see quotes by Mashaei that may indicate his intention to run for president in the upcoming elections on the screens at Imam Khomeini Airport (Mashaei has not officially announce his candidacy yet). The big question looming overhead on the Iranian political scene is whether Ahmadinejad will risk his remaining political capital to declare and/or support Mashaei's candidacy, although it is believed that the Guardian Council will disqualify him in light of his being known as a leader of the "deviant current" in Iran. Opinion in Iran on the issue is divided and many believe that Ahmadinejad's posturing, over the past year, as if to anger Mashaei, despite criticism and sharp attacks against the two and even the claims that they are inciting against Iran's Supreme Leader, and disagree with the principle of the Velayat-e Faqih, ultimately indicate that in the end Ahmadinejad will declare his support of Mashaei's candidacy for president. A recent poll conducted by ISNA reveals that Ahmadinejad's supporters have support (over 20,000 respondents participated in the survey, although the editors wrote that it does not reflect real results). In any case, the issue of the elections is already at the center of Iranian political discourse, with the nuclear issue at the forefront. Popular opinion in Iran is that they have failed and have not achieved the (pretentious) goal set by Iran – lifting of sanctions and recognition of Iran's legitimate right to nuclear energy. One way or another, this issue will be at the top of the agenda regarding the new foreign policy to be formed by the next Iranian government. An indication of this is already seen in statements made by Hassan Rouhani, former head of the nuclear negotiations team with the West, who recently announced his candidacy for presidency, possibly earning the support of Rafsanjani. Rouhani defended the negotiating tactics in his time, which did not bring Iran to the brink of war and did not cause the nuclear case to be subject to the UN Security Council. He also expressed implied criticism over the way in which the nuclear talks are being conducted under Ahmadinejad's presidency. The Supreme Leader’s representative in the IRGC emphasized that in the upcoming elections, a “person with strong capabilities” should win and lead Iran out of the stormy waters of economic difficulties (some of which are attributed to the sanctions imposed on Iran). The IRGC claims that it does not intend to intervene in the elections (primarily through the Basij, which are located in cities and towns across the country), but it appears that preparations have begun to see which way the wind is blowing, and particularly the Supreme Leader's stance and which candidate the people should support "within the confines of the law" and not as part of "elections engineering," a phrase that has recently become popular in Iran and is the fruit of intimations of IRGC officials and experience from the last election. One way or the other, Mashaei or any other candidate sponsored by Ahmadinejad and his supporters or any candidate from any other stream will need the Supreme Leader's blessing and some assistance from the IRGC on elections day.
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Once again, tensions peaked this week between Iran and its neighbor to the north, Azerbaijan. The relations between the two countries have had their ups and downs, but are always accompanied by tension surrounding the ethnic question. Close to 25 million Azeris live in Iran today (comprising the largest minority group in Iran. The Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is Azeri as is opposition leader Mir Houssein Mousavi). Iran also refuses to accept their loss of North Azerbaijan to Russia at the beginning of the 19th century, as part of the Transcaucasian conquests of the Russian Empire and still view this area as an Iranian province, although they generally suppress these aspirations. And from the other side of the border, Azerbaijan views South Azerbaijan (Azerbaijan Province in Iran) as part of greater Azerbaijan, home to many ethnic Azeris who it maintains are entitled to speak their own language and to independence. Iran will not allow this. Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan are tense, because of Azerbaijan’s relationship with the West, and particularly the United States and its allies in the Middle East. Iran views these relations as part of the noose of isolation around its neck and the Western presence on its borders. Additionally, the secular character of Azerbaijan (the result of close to 70 years under Soviet rule) and what Tehran views as repression of Shiite Islam in the country as a force that taints the relationship between the two countries. Thus, for example, the fact that the 2012 Eurovision Song Contest was held in Azerbaijan drew strong protest from inside Iran. In any event, last week tensions between the two countries flared once again, when a convention of Azeris calling for annexation of the regions inhabited by ethnic Azeris in Iran lead to an outpouring of protest by numerous groups in Iran, and the Azerbaijani ambassador to Tehran was summoned to the Foreign Ministry and censured. He was called on to ensure that such forums do not convene on Azerbaijani soil in the future. Members of the Iranian Majlis were less official in their responses. Mansour Haqiqatpour, Vice Chairman of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said that residents of serveral cities in Azerbaijan, including the capital of Baku, who were separated from Iran under the rule of the Qajar dynasty and its war with Russia, have expressed their interest in rejoining Iran, and that Iranian residents of Ardabil, Tabriz, Urmia and Zanjan (which have minority Azeri populations) had expressed their willingness to respond harshly to the actions of the Azeri government and announced their readiness to reclaim the towns stolen from Iran during the Qajar dynasty.[1] The representative of Ardabil in the Majlis stressed the need to hold a referendum on whether Azerbaijan should join Iran. He argued that there is real, open interest and desire among Azerbaijani citizens to rejoin Iran. Hossein Shariatmadari, Managing Editor of Kayhan, a paper that general reflects the view of Iran’s Supreme Leader, suggested calling on Azeri officials to hold a referendum in the regions “taken” from Iran and asking whether the residents want to be annexed to Iran. Shariatmadari further stated that this was a “logical and democratic step.” In the end, we can say that Iran-Azerbaijan relations are mainly influenced and shaped by their geo-strategic environment. Until now, Iran, a country under heavy sanctions by the West that feels isolated, has refrained from deviating from its policy of sharp verbal exchanges with respect to the disputes with Azerbaijan. However, the strength of the Iranian response to the conference in Baku, when similar conferences have been held in the past, may indicate that we will be seeing a change in this policy and that Tehran is signaling that it wants to open a new front against the West in Azerbaijan as well. [1] http://tinyurl.com/ca6sf3d
Read More →Despite the New Year holiday in Iran, the upcoming presidential elections slated for June 14 continue to dominate the political scene. Several new candidates have joined the presidential race. Iran's Supreme Leader discussed the need to maintain law and order during the elections (and even published statements in this spirit on his Facebook wall and on Twitter). The Supreme Leader stated (following the accusations leveled against him) that the political establishment is not interested in "engineering" the elections. The Ministry of Intelligence and other security agencies have warned against exploiting the elections to foment public disorder and have imposed restrictions on the Internet ahead of the elections. The individual battles has not been left unattended, with the battle between Ahmadinejad and his candidate, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei (relative and close advisor), who will likely be disqualified by the Guardian Council (which screens candidates), appears to be heightening. Many of his opponents view Ahmadinejad and his candidate as deviating from the revolutionary current and as undermining the authority of the Supreme Leader. In this context, Rahim Mashaei clarified that he hopes the next government in Iran will continue in the path of Ahmadinejad and expressed his displeasure with the the Iranian broadcast authority’s open support of "certain candidates" referring to the 2+1 coalition, backed by Khamenei, consisting of the Supreme Leader's Advisor for International Affairs, Ali Akbar Velayati, Tehran Mayor, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and leading Majlis member, Gholam Ali Haddad Adel.[1] In contrast, Mohammad Reza Bahonar criticized President Ahmadinejad for violating the Elections Law in his frequent use of the controversial slogan "long live spring," which is identified with supporters of Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, even calling him “a man of spring” during his most recent speeches in honor of the New Year and Revolution Day. In addition to the battles between the government candidates and other candidates from the conservative principlist current, the reformist camp continues its efforts to persuade the former president of Iran to run in the elections and is consulting with members of the reformist camp on this issue. At the same time, officials in the conservative camp, including former Intelligence Minister Ali Fallahiyan, are continuing to demand that Khatami clarify his positions regarding the events following the 2009 presidential elections before he decides to join the presidential race. The conservative camp views these procedures, and particularly the activity of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi (who have been under house arrest for almost two years) before, during and after the June 2009 presidential elections as a betrayal of their responsibility for the popular protest and "their affiliation with external elements wanting to oust the regime in Iran and incite civil war (fitna)." In any case, the issue is still open for discussion in Iran and with the statements of Habibollah Asgaroladi, head of the Followers of Imam and Supreme Leader Front, who said that the continued house arrest of the two is a lock that, if not opened, will cause problems again in the next elections… The lock was gluing Mousavi and Karroubi to the sedition (2009 post-election unrest), Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, member of the Presidium of the Assembly of Experts, has warned that Khamenei's Nowruz speech did not mean that reformists could stand in the upcoming presidential elections and introduce a candidate. In his Nowruz speech (March 21) Khamenei said, "All currents and movements trends of the Islamic Republic should take part in the elections. This is the duty and the right of everyone. The elections are not held for a particular current or a particular movement. Everyone who believes in the system of the Islamic Republic, who believes in the independence of the country and cares for the country and the national interests, should take part in the elections. Those who do not participate in the elections are the ones who are against the Islamic system."[2] Hojattoleslam Heydar Moslehi, Minister of Intelligence, said in this regard that all political factions that believe in the Islamic Republic's system can and may enter the elections, where they would compete within the "red lines of the Islamic system… The Intelligence Ministry has created a plan to handle security during the presidential elections. Ahmaed Shaheed, UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran, who recently published a scathing report on the human rights situation in Iran, discussed the upcoming elections on his website and publication on the BBC Persian website. Shaheed called for "free and fair elections in Iran,” and wrote that "Unfortunately, in Iran, the 2009 presidential election and violent post-election events demonstrate that rather than offering an opportunity for people to assert their basic civil and political rights, elections in Iran have seemingly become a time when rights are subdued and choices imposed… That the country will engage in an open and considered debate about its future. And yet, as one surveys the situation of human rights in Iran in 2013, it is difficult to foresee that things will be better than they were four years ago.”[3] In conclusion, the upcoming presidential elections in Iran serve as fertile ground for rival camps to criticize each other, and it appears that this trend will grow as the elections approach. The 11th presidential election will be held on June 14, 2013. The presidential hopefuls will register from May 7 to May 11. In the window of opportunity that remains until final registration deadline for candidates, other candidates will submit their candidacy. The Guardian Council will then announce the individuals eligible to continue in the race and those who are disqualified. It will also be a test of the regime's stability and self-confidence in its ability to cope with a reformist candidate, even more so if it will be Mohammad Khatami or Rafsanjani (if they decide to join the race and pass the Guardian Council screening), while Iran's economy continues to deteriorate and its revenue from oil continues to decline. [1] http://khabaronline.ir/detail/283732/politics/election [2] http://www.leader.ir/langs/ar/index.php?p=contentShow&id=10490 [3] http://www.shaheedoniran.org/index.php?news=3167
Read More →International View All →
Mohammad Reza Naqdi said that the biggest lie of the year is by those who claim that establishing relations with the US will lower prices and improve the economy. If we reconcile with the US, our economic circumstances will further decline. Our responsibility this year, according to Naqdi, is to create an economic and political epic. This proves the maturity of the Iranian people. The Supreme Leader viewed the people as having the capability and maturity to create such an epic. The world looks and sees that these promises of welfare and a good economy in Western culture have not been achieved, but Islamic culture is a leader in calm and respect for the scientific and technological advancements. The West cannot launch a military war against us, because our people have already fought wars with nothing, and the West also failed in the war with Iran's protégés in Lebanon. Today, we have advanced weapons and missiles, while defending the faith and love of the Shehadah, and they definitely cannot beat our nation.
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Mohammad Reza Naqdi said, "The process of a shifting of civilizations is currently occurring around the world and refusal of Western civilization is spreading in human society, even in the heart of America… Today, the economic situation in America is critical, and if this country did not steal from Kuwaiti and Arab oil fields, it would be unable to remain in the state of coma in which it has appeared." He added that the US was waging a "cultural onslaught" against Iran. In reference to the 2012 Academy Award win by Iranian director Asghar Farhadi's film, A Separation, he said, "Even to attract our intellectuals, the enemy sends packs with money for them, and America has sacrificed an Oscar for the fight against Iran." Naqdi envisaged that compromise with the US would reduce global oil prices, and said that "During the periods of reform (governments of Rafsanjani and Khatami), when someone said welcome to America, the price of Iranian oil suddenly fell from USD 25 to USD 10, while later on, when the Iranian nation fought over its nuclear issue and the nuclear program suspension was removed, oil prices increased."
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Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi met with UN special envoy to Afghanistan, Yan Kubish, and said that responsibility for security in Afghanistan must be transferred to Afghans. Salehi reiterated Iran's stance against the establishment of US military bases in Afghanistan.
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Mohsen Naziri Asl was appointed as Iran's new ambassador to Geneva. Prior to his appointment, Naziri Asl had served as the Deputy Director General for political international affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran since 2010. He served as Charge d'affaires of the Embassy of Iran in the Netherlands from 2007 to 2010 and Deputy Permanent Representative at the Iranian Mission to the United Nations Office at Vienna from 2004 to 2005, and the First Secretary at the Permanent Mission of Iran to the United Nations Office at Geneva from 1996 to 1999. Naziri Asl has a BA in theology from the Islamic Azad University in Tehran (1989), a BA in political science from the School of International Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (1993), an MA in international law from Islamic Azad University (1996), an MA in diplomacy and international organizations from the School of International Relations (1996); and a PhD in international law from the University of Shahid Beheshti (2013). He was born in Tehran on 11 August 1961 and is married with two children.
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Iran's residing envoy at the Vienna-based UN Office was elected as head of the Program and Budget Committee of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO).
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Foreign Ministry Spokesman Seyyed Abbas Araqchi advised American officials to increase the level of their information regarding the legal processes and mechanisms in Iran's political system and constitution. Araqchi said that US policies in the Middle East have always suffered from lack of information (intelligence) and weak analysis. He added that US unfounded judgment regarding the elections process in Iran, is an insult to the maturity and political understanding of the wise Iranian nation…. The Iranian nation and public opinion in the region have witnessed more than half a century of USA support of despotic and dictatorial regimes in the region and have no regard for their outdated claims of support for true democracy.
Read More →Mohammad Reza Tabesh, Majlis deputy, criticized the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for endorsing a memorandum of understanding with Argentina over the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires without the consent of the Majlis. He underlined that "Despite the fact that international accords must be approved by the Majlis, a few months ago a memorandum of understanding was signed between Iran and Argentina on the AMIA case… I stated my objection at that time via warnings… 17 deputies have objected to endorsing the AMIA memorandum of understanding. These memoranda of understanding would let Argentinean judiciary officials interrogate the (Iranian) suspects, who are mainly current or formerly high-ranking government officials." In the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish center, 85 people were killed. Argentina’s Foreign Minister Héctor Timerman revealed in March 2013 that the Argentine government had received a letter from Interpol stressing that the memorandum of understanding signed between the Argentine and Iranian governments last month meant “positive progress” for the investigation of the AMIA bombing. The letter went on to assure that the existing red notices and arrest warrants issued by Interpol for the six Iranians suspected of being involved in the attack will remain active and not be lifted. The list includes current Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi and former President Rafsanjani. Also on the wanted list: Mohsen Rezaee, former IRGC Commander and presidential candidate, Ali Akbar Velayati (until 2007) former Foreign Minister and current international advisor to the Supreme Leader and a presidential hopeful, are also on the Interpol's wanted list regarding the AMIA terror attack.
Read More →Ahmadinejad will not be attending Ecuadorian President Correa’s inauguration this Friday, May 24, and will be replaced by his Vice President.
Read More →Military View All →
Iranian Navy Lieutenant Commander, Rear Admiral Gholam-Reza Khadem Bigham, said that due to the use of up-to-date equipment applied in other warships and destroyers, it was felt that certain changes should be made in this (new) destroyer, and we were able to update and upgrade the equipment in this destroyer. It will be unveiled in the near future.
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Iran has put into operation a direct-fire and artillery simulation system as well as a "smart" surface-to-surface missile system simulator. The gear was unveiled in the presence of Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Purdastan, Iranian Army's Ground Forces Commander, during the second phase of the Beit al-Moqaddas (Jerusalem) 25 military exercise in Isfahan Province. The third and final phase of the military drill will be held today (Friday), which falls on the anniversary of the liberation of Khorramshahr from Iraqi forces during the Iraq-Iran War. Esmail Kowsari, a member of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Committee (NSFP) and an IRGC veteran, underlined that the operation’s (Beit al-Moqaddas 25) ultimate goal is Israel's destruction.
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An “informed source” in the Foreign Ministry denied Bahrain authorities' claim that an Iranian UAV has been seen flying above Bahraini coastline airspace. The source also advised the Bahraini government to respond to the demands of their people instead of leveling baseless accusations (at Iran)."
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Commander of the Internal Security Forces, Sardar Esmail Ahmadi, emphasized that the various media outlets today are focusing on the collapse of religious values. According to him, public opinion has become a political tool by several countries around the world in order to impact economic issues of other countries. Ahmadi added that the world powers have been brought to their knees before Iran, which has become a guiding light for nations around the world. Discussing the elections, Ahmadi expressed the preparedness of the security forces and security establishment to maintain peace and order during the elections. He also reiterated that security forces would not intervene in the elections on behalf of any candidate, but were in place to ensure normal election proceedings until their conclusion. Ahmadi added that the leaders of the Fitna in Iran are known to the security establishment, but they continue to live under the regime due to the Supreme Leader, who confronted them and allowed them to continue to live under the regime.
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Ahmad Vahidi unveiled five new achievements, including camouflage dress with infrared radiation binoculars as well as different types of guns and rifles.
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Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and presidential candidate, Saeed Jalili, said in a special interview with Euronews network that the results of the upcoming Iranian elections will not affect its enrichment activities, which will continue full force.
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Ahmad Vahidi said, "This system can be connected to Iran's defense network and activated in seconds to counter any threats." He described the weapon system as "a sophisticated, smart air-defense system that is capable of detecting, identifying and intercepting low-altitude targets through automatic controls" with "high mobility and capacity for night operations." He added, “What makes this defense system different from the previous short-range air-defense systems is that this one is passive and, as such, can be more effective and capable in practice to counter the disruptions caused by fighters. IRGC Aerospace Commander Brigadier General Hajizadeh, said that “This Herz 9 is 100% domestically made and corresponds with the tactics used by the armed forces." The inauguration ceremony was held on the occasion of the liberation of Khorramshahr from Iraqi occupation during Iran-Iraq war. (Photos)
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In an interview with Hezbollah television network Al-Manar, Deputy Chief of Staff Masoud Jazayeri discussed Hezbollah Secretary General's statements regarding the establishment of a Committee for the Liberation of the Golan Heights from the occupation of the Zionist regime (Israel) and emphasized that major changes would soon occur in the region, some of which will occur in the Syrian Golan. He added that liberation of the Golan Heights was possible and stated that over the next several months, we would be witness to fundamental changes in the region, and the dawning of a new Syria. The new Syria will be one that will begin a new resistance and that will spearhead a message of stability to nations of the region. Responding to a question regarding confirmation of information of an organization of forces to protect holy sites in Syria, Jazayeri confirmed these statements and said that numerous efforts were being made in this area.
Read More →Economy View All →
Iran and India reached a new agreement to barter Iranian crude oil for Indian-made products, including weaving goods technology and equipment.
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In addition to the surge in price of various medications, there has been a shortage of medication and a flourishing market for counterfeit drugs that have increased public concern. Although the responsible parties are claiming that numerous efforts have been made to supply the drugs on time, particularly drugs that are imported for patients with special illnesses, there are still shortages, high prices and a market of smuggled and counterfeit drugs that undermines public health and the economic foundations of many families. Citizens claim that when they go to purchase drugs, they must search several pharmacies until they manage to find one with drug they need at horrifically high prices. On occasion, it turns out that the drug is counterfeit. According to one pharmacist, they have no choice but to sell Chinese drugs as well.
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Head of the Students’ Welfare Fund in the Ministry of Science, Keyvan Moradian, announced that in contrast with Majlis and government promises, 100 billion tomans of the 136 billion tomans allotted for student loans were eliminated. As a result, only 170,000 of the 300,000 loan and scholarship applicants will be granted student loans.
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Managing Director of the National Iranian Petrochemical Company, Abdol Hossein Bayat, announced that the company is making an effort to obtain dispensation for foreign investors through the National Development Fund. According to Bayat, the plan is to obtain dispensations for foreign investors in banks outside of Iran, and emphasized the importance of attracting foreign investors in Iran. Bayat added that the resources that foreign investors bring to Iran help the country's financial sources and facilitate the development of the petrochemical industry. He added that the company is in negotiations with Iranian banks to provide dispensations to foreign investors.
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Iran Customs statistics reveal a sharp 3% drop in the import of black textiles for chadors this past year compared to last year, totaling USD 94,807,000. These textiles are largely imported from the UAE, South Korea, China and India. Approximately 95% of the market needs for black textile are supplied through imports.
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Majlis member Younes Asdi claims that Iran's current economy does not allow implementation of the second phase of the Subsidy Reform Law in any manner. Asdi, a member of the Majlis Agriculture, Water and Natural Resources Committee, claims that a significant percentage of citizens planned their lives according to the sum paid to them as cash subsidies and any change in these payments might negatively impact them. Asdi emphasized that dissatisfaction must not be provoked in citizens through incorrect policies. Citizens must continue to receive the current sum as part of subsidy reform.
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Mohammed Reza Naqdi called on presidential candidates to work towards implementation of economic jihad projects and a resistance economy in order to benefit citizens. Naqdi stressed that Basij activities in a year declared as a good economic year differ from the special plans of the economic jihad. He added that some of the plans to generate economic satisfaction are related to the government and were delivered to the current government. They will be submitted to the next government. Presidential candidates must create political fallout, and they must act for the welfare of citizens through economic jihad and resistance economy projects, instead of proposing plans for negotiations and peace with the enemies.
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Iranian customs data reveals a sharp 68% drop in the volume of car imports to Iran in March/April as compared with the same period last year. According to these statistics, in March/April of this year, 518 cars valued at only USD 12 million were imported into Iran, 486 of which were imported from the UAE, 16 from Korea, 10 from Kuwait and 6 cars valued at USD 115,000 were imported from other countries. In the same period, Iran exported 898 cars valued at USD 7 million this year, where in the same period last year, Iran exported 3,380 cars. The main countries receiving Iranian exports were Iraq, Ukraine and China. In the same period, Iran imported 19,000 tons of cell phones valued at USD 3,443,000, primarily from the UAE, Korea and China. Rice imports during this period totaled 113,356 tons, valued at USD 131 million.
Read More →Human Rights View All →
Dr. Hani Yazralu was arrested and sent to prison to serve his sentence. Dr. Yazralu was charged with anti-regime propaganda.
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Taheri went on a hunger strike two weeks ago to protest his prison conditions. This was the first time, however, that he has launched a hunger strike. Since his arrest last year, Taheri has been held most of the time in solitary confinement, after having been sentenced to seven years in prison and 74 lashings. No information is available about his condition.
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The family of Arash Sadeqi has received no information for the past several weeks about his condition. Arash, who had been a member of the Mousavi elections campaign in the previous elections, was sentenced to five years in prison. During his arrest, as security agents broke into his home, Arash's mother suffered a heart attack and died. Arash is serving a prison sentence in Wing 209 of Evin Prison.
Read More →Mustafa Masri is protesting the refusal of the authorities to transfer him to Naqada Prison. Masri was sentenced last year to 3.5 years in prison on charges of actions against national security. Immediately after he launched a hunger strike, Masri was transferred to solitary confinement.
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Shahrokh Zamani and Khaled Hardan, two political prisoners imprisoned in Rajaei Shahr Prison in Kara,j launched a hunger strike to protest the destruction of homes belonging to the Arab minority in one of the neighborhoods in Ahvaz.
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The tenth hearing this week in the trial of the Kahrizak accused was supposed to have been the final hearing, but claims by the defense continued and according to one defendants, the court has still not questioned all of the witnesses for the defense. Today, the 11th hearing will take place. Furthermore, the lawyer for the family of the victim, Javadi Far, stated that the family of the victim wished to withdraw its lawsuit against Mortazavi only on the count of conspiracy to murder and that the other charges against Mortazavi and the lawsuit of the other families are still standing.
Read More →Domestic View All →
Iran's Minister of Communications and Information Technologies, Mohammad Hassan Naami, announced that one of the main programs of his Ministry is the reinforcement of Iran's electronic borders and maintenance of national frequencies to protect national security and to prevent other countries from infiltrating this space.
Read More →Ayatollah Sadeq Amoli Larijani, Chairman of the Judiciary, listed the regulations on employment of judges and emphasized, among other things, that judges who smoke would not be hired.
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Publication of a booklet of academic majors at universities in recent years has again provoked shock among students. This time, 13 subjects in social sciences were cancelled, revealing the gender discrimination against female students. The booklet published this year for master’s degree studies shows a continuation of trend of clear discrimination against female students in terms of gender allocation. In addition, at Tehran University, the Faculty of Women's Studies was shut down. This faculty has undergone numerous changes in recent years and has been transformed from Women's Studies to Women and the Family and Women's Rights in Islam. This year, it has been completely eliminated from the university booklet.
Read More →Following the jamming of Aztab website and the arrest of the manager responsible for the website, Ali Azali, journalist and chief editor of the website Fouad Sadeghi was also arrested. Sadeghi was involved in the establishment of the headquarters of conservatives who support Hashemi Rafsanjani. Since his arrest, no information has been released about Sadeghi's condition.
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The state of government organizations in terms of Internet is better. Most of the difficulties occur with private users. According to the manager of one Internet provider in Tehran, the Internet across Iran has been disconnected since Saturday. Kanun newspaper, published in Tehran, called the state of the internet, "The Internet on the Floor." According to the manager, rumors have it that the disconnections are related to the upcoming elections. According to a student from Tehran, even Google no longer loads.
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Mamnooe, (ممنوع ) "Forbidden" from the album, Tashkilat Movazi (video by Ala Mohseni, 2013). Nothing to say when silence and cries are forbidden Move on, staying here is forbidden Baha'i religion: forbidden! Private TV: forbidden! Helping quake victims: forbidden! Having dogs: forbidden!
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Cyber police commander in North Khorasan province announced the closure of three Internet cafes that failed to comply with police instructions such as prohibition on installation of proxies, VPN and anti-filtering devices.
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